Introduction: In December 2019, Wuhan city of Hubei province in China witnessed the outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS–CoV 2) which has become an International Public health emergency and WHO has declared it as Pandemic disease which is affecting more than 210 countries of the world. The transmission rate and infection rate of COVID–19 is very high. This is an attempt to predict the short–term trend of incidence rate, case recovery and case fatality of COVID–19 by using suitable mathematical models. Material and Methodology: COVID–19 data was collected from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW), Government of India. Here, we collected data daily through internet from March 2nd 2020 to May 15th 2020. A total cumulative number, recovered cases and death cases are collected for statistical analysis. The ten days interval growth rate and exponential doubling time is calculated by using the exponential equation. For prediction of future cases, various types of exponential smoothing like Double Exponential, Brown Exponential, Holt–Winter Exponential Smoothing was used along with ARIMA model, models are selected based on model fits criteria. Results: The first COVID–19 case was reported on March 2nd,2020 in India and by May 15th 2020 cumulative incidence reached up to 85967 cases with Average growth rate of 11.1. In Karnataka, first COVID–19 case was reported on March 9th 2020 and the cumulative Incidence raised to 1056 cases with mean growth rate 8.8%. The recovery percentage in India and Karnataka are 34.1% and 51.1% respectively at the end of May 15th of 2020. A 3.2% Case fatality rate was observed in India against 3.4% in Karnataka. Maximum doubling time observed was 13 days and 21 days for India and Karnataka respectively. After 2nd phase of lockdown, the doubling period is 12.3days and 15days in India and Karnataka. The ARIMA, Exponential models was used to forecast future cases. About 1,81,868 cases in India and 1800 cases in Karnataka are predicted by the end of May and about 5,56,170 cases and 3170 cases are expected by the end of June–2020. The predictive number of deaths is about 4480 in India and 43 in Karnataka by the end of May and it may reach 7710 and 55 deaths by end of June–2020 respectively. Conclusion: Based on model’s predictions, COVID–19 cases show increasing trend in both Incidence and Mortality in India and Karnataka till June–2020. The current health facility measures taken for the containment of the dreadful COVID–19 must be strengthened by more effective testing, detection and supportive treatment strategies to reduce the causalities from this viral infection until an effective drug for treatment is found in the near future. The details of novel Corona virus behavior is still evolving and future research must be done to find the vaccine at the earliest.