A comparative study on stock prices of M/s Dabur and M/s Emami Ltd using Value at Risk (VaR - Normal Distribution) technique during the period 2017-18

M. Subramanian

Volume : VII, Issue : VIII, August - 2018

A comparative study on stock prices of M/s Dabur and M/s Emami Ltd using Value at Risk (VaR - Normal Distribution) technique during the period 2017-18

M. Subramanian

Abstract :

With a population of over one billion, India is one of the largest economies in the world in terms of purchasing power and consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund has projected that India�s GDP will grow by 7.4% during 2016–17, making it the world�s fastest–growing large economy. The fast–moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is an important contributor to India�s GDP growth. The sector includes food & dairy products, packaged food products, household products, drinks and others. FMCG is the fourth largest sector in Indian economy and provides employment to around 3 million people accounting for approximately 5% of the total factory employment in India. The sector is characterized by strong presence of leading multinational companies, competition between organized and unorganized players, well established distribution network, and low operational cost. The growth of the FMCG sector, which primarily includes Food & beverages, personal care and household care, has been driven in both the rural and urban segments. Rural consumption growth has outpaced urban consumption with the increase in percentage in monthly per capita expenditure in rural markets surpassing its urban counterparts over the past five years.

This study is comparative &analytical in nature to analyze the stock price performance of M/s HUL and M/s ITC, leading FMCG companies in India. This study has used the following analytical tools to make the analysis (a) Descriptive Statistics (b) Value at Risk (VaR). The study period covers the stock price data of M/s Dabur and M/s Emami Ltd from first trading day of April 2017 till the last trading day of March 2018. Ultimately this study would analyze and suggest the investors, what is the maximum loss, if at they may incur, if they invest in M/s Dabur and M/s Emami Ltd.