Volume : VI, Issue : IX, September - 2017

FACTORS AFFECTING CRIME RATES IN KENYA; A REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Dr. Joel C. Chelule, Mr. Chris Muchwanju

Abstract :

 In this paper, we use a special type Mixed Effects Regression Model, that is Hierarchical Linear Model to study factors affecting crime rates in Kenya. The study explores the effect of various factors on the crime rate in Kenya. We estimate a crime equation using a panel dataset of the provinces in Kenya for the period 1990 to 2010 employing the REML estimator. The parameter estimates for the variables Poverty Rate (0.95542), Unemployment rate (0.526), Young men (15–29) years(0.2394), Conviction Rate(–0.278), clear–up rate (–0.87) Probability of arrest (–2.65), and population Density (0.0414)  are all significant at 95% confidence Interval in accounting for increase in Crime Rate against person with their expected signs. The parameter estimates for the variables Poverty Rate (0.127), Unemployment rate (0.0.414), School enrolment (–0.817), Probability of conviction (–0.126)),Probability of arrest (–4.32) and population Density (0.114) are all significant at 95% confidence Interval in accounting for increase in Crime Rate against property with their expected signs. Our empirical results further suggest that Poverty Rate, Unemployment rate, Probability of arrest, population Density and police rate are correlated to all typologies of crime rate considered. 

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Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijsr  

Cite This Article:

Dr. Joel C. Chelule, Mr. Chris Muchwanju, FACTORS AFFECTING CRIME RATES IN KENYA; A REGRESSION ANALYSIS, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH : Volume-6 | Issue-9 | September-2017

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