Volume : V, Issue : X, October - 2016

FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF SOME BEANS IN TURKEY USING HOLT AND DAMPED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS

Senol Celik

Abstract :

The goal of the investigation was to forecast annual production amounts of some beans produced in Turkey. The data are annual data for the 1961–2015 period. For this, Holt and Damped Trend exponential smoothing methods were carried out for statistical model the time series data. Goodness of fit criteria like stationary R2, R2, RMSE and BIC criteria were approved in the comparison of these exponential smoothing methods. Chickpea, beandry and lentils production amounts for the period 2016 to 2020 were predicted using Holt exponential smoothing method with two parameters, which determined the best one among exponential smoothing methods. Production amounts forecasted in, chickpea, beandry and lentils from the period 2016 to 2020 varied 470899 to 514494, 236778 to 243950 and 374364 to 408174 tons, respectively. The conclusion from the study is that, beans production will be increased in future.

Keywords :

Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijsr  

Cite This Article:

Senol Celik FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF SOME BEANS IN TURKEY USING HOLT AND DAMPED EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHODS International Journal of Scientific Research,Volume : 5 | Issue : 10 | October 2016

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