Volume : II, Issue : VII, July - 2013

Modeling of Rice Production in West Bengal

N. N. Jambhulkar

Abstract :

Rice is the chief food grain of Indian population. West Bengal ranks first in the rice production in the country. Due to increase in demand of rice over the years, the modeling and forecasting of rice production over the years is very important. An Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been successful in describing and forecasting the rice production in the past studies. In the present study, ARIMA stochastic modeling is used for describing rice production in West Bengal. The yearly rice production data of West Bengal from 1960-61 to 1999-2000 has been taken for model building and the data from 2000-01 to 2009-10 has been used for validation of the model. The best model has been selected based on the minimum Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values. It has been found that ARIMA (2,2,0) model described the rice production data in West Bengal. SAS 9.3 software package is used for the analysis of the data.

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Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijsr  

Cite This Article:

N. N. Jambhulkar Modeling of Rice Production in West Bengal International Journal of Scientific Research, Vol : 2, Issue : 7 July 2013

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