Seasonal Variation Influencing Dengue Transmission in Mumbai City: a model for Outbreak Prediction

Dr. Shanta Shubhra Das; Dr. Dilip Turbadkar; Dr. Sujata Baveja; Dr. Chaya A. Kumar; Dr. Anita Ramchandran; Dr. Mrudul Randive

Volume : V, Issue : VII, July - 2016

Seasonal Variation Influencing Dengue Transmission in Mumbai City: a model for Outbreak Prediction

Dr. Shanta Shubhra Das, Dr. Dilip Turbadkar, Dr. Sujata Baveja, Dr. Chaya A. Kumar, Dr. Anita Ramchandran, Dr. Mrudul Randive

Abstract :

ObjectivesTo study the seasonal variation in Dengue infection in Mumbai, India. Methods 686 clinically suspected dengue patients, admitted in LTMMC & GH, Mumbai, a tertiary care hospital, were enrolled in the study and divided into two groups [Group A (<5 days fever) & Group B (>5 days fever)]. Serum samples of Group A, were tested for detection of dengue NS1 antigen and the same from Group B patients were tested for detection of dengue IgM antibody. Results In the study group, 28.13% patients were reactive for dengue infection. Maximum seropositivity (74.61%) was seen in between 15–45 years. Maximum reactivity (86.01%) was also seen in post–monsoon period. Conclusion In this study, middle–aged male population represented the seropositive group of dengue infection. Maximum clinically suspected and dengue reactive patients were observed in post–monsoon period. Early identification and interventions against an impending outeak are of critical value in prevention of the outeak.