Trend analysis of HIV and syphilis prevalence of most at risk population and its future projection in West Bengal

Dr. Dipendra Narayan Goswami; Dr. Suman Ganguly; Dr. Debjit Chakraborty

Volume : VII, Issue : XI, November - 2018

Trend analysis of HIV and syphilis prevalence of most at risk population and its future projection in West Bengal

Dr. Dipendra Narayan Goswami, Dr. Suman Ganguly, Dr. Debjit Chakraborty

Abstract :

Background

West Bengal is a low–prevalent state with high vulnerability for HIV (Human Immunodeficiany Virus) epidemic. Female Sex Workers (FSW), Men having Sex with Men (MSM), Injecting Drug Users (IDU), Transgender (TG), Long Distance Truckers (LDT) and Migrant Labour(ML) constitute high risk population who are at risk to acquire HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) like syphilis and transmit the same to others.

Objective

To determine the trend of HIV–positivity and Syphilis prevalence among different high risk population attending HIV Counselling and Testing Services (HCTS) over a period of three years and to project future HIV positivity based on ongoing trend

Methodology

The study was conducted with available program data year–wise from 2015–16 to 2017–18 among different group of at risk population availing HIV testing and other STI services. Year–wise positivity and Syphilis prevalence were calculated and trend–analysis was performed using growth rate. Based on the current trend, HIV positivity and Syphilis positivity among the different high risk group population was calculated and projected for 2018–19 and 2019–20.

Results

The HIV–positivity was found to be highest among TG population followed by MSM and FSW but projected HIV positivity for 2018–19 and 2019–20 were found to be lower than 2017–18 for the respective subpopulation at risk. Similarly Syphilis prevalence was found to be highest among LDT population followed by ML and FSW but projected Syphilis prevalence for 2018–19 and 2019–20 were found to be lower than 2017–18 for all groups except TG where it predicted that Syphilis prevalence would further increase in coming future.

Conclusion

All the HIV preventive services should be continued as per program protocol but Syphilis detection and preventive services needs to be enforced in focussed manner in case of TG population.