Volume : III, Issue : IX, September - 2013

Development of A Road Accident Prediction Model Based on System Dynamics Approach

K. Nachimuthu, P. Partheeban

Abstract :

This paper deals on prediction of road accidents for Chennai city using system dynamics approach. In this case, the simulation road accident prediction model was developed from the base year 2010. Chennai City road accident data was collected from 2006 to 2010 from Chennai city traffic police. In this research an attempt is made to identify the various factors causing the road accidents. The road accident prediction model was developed using factors of human behaviors, vehicle factors and road factors. The system dynamics road accident prediction model was developed using STELLA software. STELLA software is a powerful tool for making a simulation model instead of stock and flow diagram, graphical interface, table and graph view, causal relational diagrams and build in functions. The main objective for the studies is to establish simple, practicable simulation road accident models that can predict the expected number of accidents from 2010 to 2020. The predicted number of accident in 2010 was 5255 and accident for the year 2020 will be 21612. The model was also validated by compå the predicted accident values of the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 with actual accident values.

Keywords :

Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijar  

Cite This Article:

K. Nachimuthu, P. Partheeban Development of A Road Accident Prediction Model Based on System Dynamics Approach Indian Journal of Applied Research, Vol.III, Issue.IX September 2013

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