Volume : V, Issue : VI, June - 2015

FORECASTING ANALYSING OF TIME SERIES VITAL STATISTICS CRS DATA OF DELHI

Hemant Kumar

Abstract :

 The main focus of this my research work is the analysis of major vital statistics i.e. ‘Live Births’, ‘Deaths’ and ‘Infant Deaths’ of Delhi on the basis of secondary data collected from website of Delhi Govt by Civil Registration of Births and Deaths during the years 2003–2012 and forecasted for the next three years with usual validation . The work has tried to analyse and evaluate the trend of live births, total deaths and infant deaths. The high number of infant deaths is a major cause of concern and so is the high ratio of total deaths to infant deaths. Also, Birth order statistics are important for measuring the progress and effectiveness of family welfare activities. Data was studied on the basis of gender to analyse the figures of live births and infant deaths in greater detail. The attempted had made to derive a trend and estimate the future figures of live births, total deaths as well as infant deaths that help in the better plan and policy formation in the above mentioned fields with usual interpretations. The method of Regression analysis was the best fit forecast the data however the time series data doesn’t follow any particular trend and irregular fluctuations has been observed in demographic of Delhi as recorded (CRS) key vital indicators.

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Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijar  

Cite This Article:

Hemant Kumar Forecasting Analysing of Time Series Vital Statistics Crs Data of Delhi Indian Journal of Applied Research, Vol.5, Issue : 6 June 2015

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