Volume : VIII, Issue : IX, September - 2018

Markov chain model of weekly rainfall probability and dry and wet spells for agricultural planning in Kandhamal district of Odisha

Sasmita Behera, Dr C. R. Subudhi, S. Das

Abstract :

Thisstudy was done at CAET, OUAT, Bhubaneswar during 2018 under post graduationprogramme to obtain crop planning for Kandhamal district of Odisha, India with itslargepopulation isfacinguniquechallenges ofwaterscarcitydue to diverse geographical, climaticand geo–environmental conditionsapartfromunequal spatio–temporal distribution offreshwaterresources. Thereforeefficient and effective water managementstrategiesare essentialformeetingthe increasingwaterneeds ofagricultural, domestic, industrialandenvironmentalsectors.Consideringthe currentwaterresourcesproblemsandrapidincreaseinitsdemand,theimportance of effectiveutilizationofwaterresourcescannotbeunderestimatedifIndiahastoremain self–reliant infoodproduction. Agriculture is the major user of water, improving agricultural water management is essential. Generally, yield decreased by 50% due to water stress.Daily rainfall Data of 25 years (1992– 2016) were collected for the study.The dry and wet spell analysis was carried out using weekly rainfall based on Markov Chain Model considering less than 20 mm rainfall in a week as a dry week and 20 mm or more as a wet week. The effective monsoon period districts for Kandhamal are from 24th to 39th SMW. From 75 mm forward accumulation it is concluded that the ploughing operation may be started from 17th SMW and from 200 mm forward accumulation it is concluded that puddling operation may be started from 24thfor Kandhamal district. Different SMWs were obtained by using 100 mm, 200 mm, 300 mm, 400 mm and 500 mm from backward accumulation for different districts and crop planning were made accordingly. Also, different SMWs were obtained by using combination of rainfall (100 mm, 200 mm, 300 mm, 400 mm and 500 mm) and irrigation(0, 100 mm, 200 mm, 300 mm, 400 mm and 500 mm) and crop planning were made accordingly.

Keywords :

Article: Download PDF   DOI : 10.36106/ijar  

Cite This Article:

Sasmita Behera, Dr C.R.Subudhi, S.Das, Markov chain model of weekly rainfall probability and dry and wet spells for agricultural planning in Kandhamal district of Odisha, INDIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED RESEARCH : Volume-8 | Issue-9 | September-2018


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