PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS ON THE BASE OF THE STOCHASTIC MODELS OF SEISMICITY

Rashid Burtiev; Vasile Alcaz; Vladlen Cardanets

Volume : VI, Issue : VIII, August - 2016

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS ON THE BASE OF THE STOCHASTIC MODELS OF SEISMICITY

Rashid Burtiev, Vasile Alcaz, Vladlen Cardanets

Abstract :

A universal method based on the stochastic models of seismicity to seismic hazards assessment is proposed. It means that in a certain location of the Earth’s surface during the time of t will occurs a certain number n of shakes and m of them with an intensity of Ik (more Ik). To identify the area of earthquakes on the seismic zones cluster analysis is used. The Markov model for seismic events was elaborated. Intensity attenuation law for Moldova and Romania, was obtained on base of macroseismic data set of the intermediate earthquakes occurred in Vrancea seismic zone The equation coefficients of the attenuation for intermediate earthquakes of the Vrancea seismic zone were determined. The angle between the major axis of the attenuation ellipse and the positive direction of abscissa is γ0=510. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed and the map of seismic zoning of Moldova and adjacent territory elaborated.